← clivethompson.com 🎩 The Monty Hall Problem v2.0 · 2026-10-17 05:15 CEST
The puzzle: A prize is hidden under one of the cups. You pick a cup — then the host (who knows where the prize is) lifts one of the other cups to show it is empty. Now you can Switch to the remaining cup, or Stay with your first choice. Should you switch?

The answer: Always switch! With 3 cups, staying wins 1 in 3 times, but switching wins 2 in 3 times. With N cups, switching wins (N−1)/N of the time.
Number of cups
Mode
1,000 games
Medium
Pick a cup to begin
Running Statistics
0
Games
0
Switch Wins
0
Stay Wins
Switch
—
Stay
—
Theory: Switch wins 66.7%, Stay wins 33.3%
📜 History of the Monty Hall Problem
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